Defined benefit (DB) pension transfer redress remains unlikely to be payable in most cases, after Broadstone’s latest tracker for Q3 2026 found that a typical consumer is now expected to be around £59,000 better off as a result of transferring.

The consultancy’s quarterly redress tracker showed a further fall in estimated compensation levels, driven by strong investment performance and a reduction in future inflation expectations.

Indeed, the central estimate of a £59,000 gain is markedly higher than the £40,000 gain recorded in the tracker over the previous three quarters.

Broadstone said this meant that, in most cases, no redress would be payable, as the modelled consumer would be judged to be better off as a result of transferring out of their DB pension.

It noted that the increase in the modelled gain was largely caused by strong investment returns over Q2 2026 and a fall in future inflation expectations, which lowered the calculated value of the DB benefits given up at the point of transfer.

The consultancy added that the last time its tracker indicated compensation would be payable was in Q4 2024, when the central estimate was around £2,000.

This compares with around £56,000 in Q2 2023, when the current FCA rules were introduced, highlighting the clear and sustained downward trend in redress levels over recent years.

However, Broadstone warned that the central estimate masks variation between individual cases, with some consumers still likely to be due compensation.

It stressed that cases resulting in a loss typically arise from factors such as unusual investment strategies after transfer or older transfer dates, for example before 2010.

Broadstone senior consultant and actuary, Simon Robinson, said: “Markets experienced a quarter of significant volatility following the conflict in Iran, yet strong investment returns and a reduction in inflation expectations following an uneasy truce in the Middle East saw redress levels fall further.

“With DB transfer redress falling further, our central estimate continues to find that in the majority of cases, compensation would not be payable to consumers given the expectation of an increasing gain since their transfer.

“It is important to note that this estimate will not be uniform across all consumers. In some cases, factors such as investment performance or the time of transfer, for example, may result in redress being payable.

“It means that firms must remain diligent and assess each claim on its own merit rather than assuming no compensation will be due, despite the overall significant downtrend in redress calculations.”

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