Eight in 10 (80 per cent) defined benefit (DB) pension schemes could be insured within the next eight years, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers' (PwC) Q2 2026 Pension Risk Transfer Quarterly Insights.

The Q2 2026 edition said the number of private sector DB schemes was expected to reduce from 4,700 to under 1,000, driven primarily by activity with smaller schemes.

The report suggested that, at the current pace, DB schemes with assets below £100m would be almost fully insured within eight years.

PwC said the costs of running smaller schemes had made run-on less attractive, prompting more employers to consider insurance transactions as an endgame option.

The report also projected more than 300 buy-in transactions a year among schemes with assets below £100m as insurers expanded streamlined services.

Meanwhile, larger DB schemes were holding off on endgame decisions as they await further details on the legislative and regulatory regime for surplus sharing and run-on.

PwC also stated that strong competition and excess insurer capacity had driven BPA pricing to some of its most competitive levels on record.

PwC head of pension risk transfer, Matt Cooper, said: “The direction of travel is clear. The majority of DB schemes are going to be fully insured in the next eight years, driven primarily by activity with small schemes.”

He said the expected contraction of the private sector DB market could drive further consolidation among advisers, trustees and potentially insurers, and it remains to be seen how the market will respond.

He added: “A key challenge for the industry will be the transition of over 3,500 pension schemes from buy-in to buyout over the next decade. We are already seeing considerable investment and innovation in this area from both insurers and advisers.

“Advances in technology, including the use of artificial intelligence, will play a significant role in addressing this.”

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