Concerns over the cost and long-term future of the triple-lock policy remain, despite Prime Minister Rishi Sunak pledging to retain the policy.

Under the triple lock, the basic state pension received in retirement rises each year in line with whichever is the highest out of three factors: wage growth, inflation or 2.5 per cent.

Industry speculation has suggested that this year's UK state pension could be set for a higher-than-expected increase, after data from the Office for National Statistics revealed the largest growth in annual wages since records began in 2001, at 8.2 per cent.

In contrast, inflation rates recently dipped to 6.8 per cent, after falling gas and electricity prices pushed the Consumer Prices Index to the lowest level in 17 months.

Given this, industry experts have said that this year's increase will likely be based on wage earnings growth, prompting concerns that the cost of the triple-lock pledge could be much higher than expected.

However, Sunak dismissed these worries when asked whether he would stick to the pledge by ITV News , stating: "Of course the government is committed to its policy on the triple lock.

"Now there is a statutory, a legal, process for determining the increase in pensions and benefits that happens in the autumn and that's where those final decisions are made."

Despite this reassurance allowing retirees to breathe a "huge sigh of relief", AJ Bell head of retirement policy, Tom Selby, warned that the long-term future of the policy could still be in jeopardy.

He stated: “The government’s commitment to the triple-lock no doubt has at least one eye on the general election.

"Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is the man controlling the purse strings and if earnings growth remains above expectations, he will need to find a few extra billion quid down the back of the sofa. This will inevitably re-open the debate about intergenerational fairness once again, particularly if it pushes the government to increase the tax burden on younger generations.

“A central problem with the triple-lock is that it is a policy without a clear goal as things stand, randomly ratcheting up the value of the state pension in real terms whenever inflation and earnings growth are below 2.5 per cent.

"It also leaves the government exposed to spikes in inflation or earnings, a flaw which has been brutally exposed in recent years."

Given this, Selby stressed the need for stability when it comes to state pension policy, suggesting that "ideally, that would come through cross party agreement on how much income the state pension should provide in retirement and how much of someone’s later years should, on average, be spent in receipt of the state pension".

"Serious consideration should also be given to develop smoothed earnings and inflation measures which can then be used to deliver less volatile annual increases," he continued.

“Sadly, there is currently a vacuum of sensible debate on the state pension, with the triple-lock essentially used as a totem for ‘doing right by older people’. It may require another independent review of the state pension to break this cycle and build the foundations of a consensus on what the state pension should look like over the long-term.”

This was echoed by Hargreaves Lansdown head of retirement analysis, Helen Morrissey, who warned that demographic shifts could also create further issues.

“After a slight increase in 2021, births resumed their downward slide in 2022, hitting the lowest number in twenty years," she explained.

"It’s a concerning trend as we see a burgeoning population of older people in, and moving towards, retirement and we have fewer working age people to support them.

"The fact we are living longer is a real positive but as the state pension bill continues to grow, we need to look at how we can continue to support it without placing an intolerable burden on a smaller working population.

"The prime minister has pledged support for the triple lock, and a review into increasing state pension age opted against accelerating the shift to 68 years old.

"It’s time to take a step back and look at what needs to happen to the state pension long-term to give people certainty about what they will receive and when.

"With a general election looming it is understandable that this is an issue government will not want to address right now but a review of the state pension is something that needs to be addressed in the very near future.”

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