Seven in 10 pension professionals expect more than 2,000 of the approximately 5,000 private defined benefit (DB) pension schemes currently in existence to survive the next decade, a poll by the Society of Pension Professionals (SPP) has found.

The poll took place at a recent SPP webinar on the evolving DB market, at which attendees were asked how many of the UK’s private sector DB schemes would still exist in 2035.

Over half (52 per cent) predicted between 2,000 and 2,500 schemes to still be around in 2035, with 2,500 schemes being the single most common answer, chosen by 31 per cent.

Only 18 per cent expected the market to shrink to 1,000 schemes or fewer.

Chairing the event, Independent Governance Group trustee director, Maria Keen, said: “The SPP polling results highlight the scale of opportunity for the private sector DB market to evolve over the next decade.

"With 70 per cent of attendees expecting at least 2,000 schemes to remain by 2035, the future is unlikely to be simply about consolidation and wind-up.”

Attendees were also asked what factors trustees should consider when setting DB scheme strategy.

More than half (51 per cent) said trustees should take the broadest approach, considering security, member experience, potential member upside and the possibility of sponsor refunds, while just 3 per cent said trustees should focus solely on the security of past benefits.

Keen added: “Trustee strategy is becoming broader than security alone, with member experience, improved member outcomes and sponsor interests increasingly part of the conversation.

“The next decade will be about finding new ways for DB schemes to deliver better outcomes while adapting to changing market conditions.”

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