The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its latest Mortality Projections Model, with the new model set to lead to a "significant" increase in liabilities for pension schemes that choose to use the core model “out-of-the-box”.

Core projections generated by CMI_2024, which uses an updated method to calculate population mortality data, intended to ‘better reflect the real world', yielded cohort life expectancies that were higher than those produced by CMI_2023 for males aged 45 and above and females aged 65 and above.

Overall, the model showed that all-age standardised mortality rates in England & Wales in 2024 were the lowest on record, with the standard version of CMI_2024 producing cohort life expectancies at age 65 that are about three months higher for males and about two weeks higher for females than in CMI_2023.

However, mortality rates for younger adults were above the 2014-2023 average.

For the first time, CMI's mortality projections directly incorporated the impact of the pandemic on mortality rates.

In contrast, previous versions aimed to smooth out the distortion caused by the pandemic to project underlying improvements in mortality.

The model also now allows different mortality trends for different age groups.

These changes were responsible for a ‘notable’ increase in life expectancies across different cohorts, according to LCP.

The changes followed the CMI's publication of a consultation seeking views on proposed modifications to its Mortality Projections Model.

LCP said the latest release was “significant” as the model is used by almost all trustees of defined benefit pension schemes to assess the funding position of their schemes and by sponsors to report their schemes’ financial position on their balance sheets.

Commenting on the findings, LCP partner, Ben Rees, said that trustees and corporates had become “accustomed” to seeing successive CMI models reduce life expectancies.

“For the first time, the new model will lead to a significant increase in liabilities for many schemes if they choose to use the core model 'out-of-the-box'," he explained.

“It remains to be seen how quickly the NHS will recover from its current position and the extent to which developments, such as anti-obesity medications, will improve future mortality.

“Those who have independently formed their own view on future mortality can continue to take advantage of the CMI model’s flexibility to express that view,” added Rees.

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