Covid impact on future life expectancy estimated to be less than 1%

The impact of Covid-19 on future mortality improvements will affect life expectancy by less than 1 per cent, according to a poll of insurers.

The latest survey by the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI), which looks at how insurers and reinsurers use the CMI Mortality Projections Model to make projections of future mortality, found that respondents felt the pandemic would have little impact on future mortality rates.

Respondents were asked to give a ‘best estimate view’ of the of the pandemic’s impact on future mortality improvements.

More than half predicted there would be no change in life expectancy at age 65 at the end of 2022, with the remaining respondents estimating falls of either 0.5 per cent or 1 per cent.

No survey participants believed there would be a rise in life expectancy.

Those responding indicated that they were comfortable with the CMI’s approach of placing no weight on the data for 2020 or 2021 in the core CMI Model.

CMI model users are encouraged to make appropriate adjustments to the core assumptions to reflect the purpose it is being used for.

However, no respondents placed any weight on the data for 2020, while one expects to place any weight on the data for 2021.

“Although it is early days in terms of understanding the full impact of the pandemic, this survey has given us an opportunity to see how insurers and reinsurers view its effect on future mortality improvements,” commented CMI Mortality Projections Committee chair, Cobus Daneel.

“As the situation is still evolving, we will continue to monitor this through our annual survey to see if views change.

“We are encouraged by the widespread adoption of the latest versions of the CMI Model, and that the core version of the Model aligns closely with industry views.”

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