Market volatility has impacted XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index through the first quarter of 2026, with values peaking at £146,000 in mid-February before falling back after markets reacted to the conflict in the Middle East.

This is in contrast to the final quarter of 2025, when DB transfer values stabilised as gilt yields settled.

Despite the swings, the index still ended March at £142,000 – its highest quarter-end level in a year.

The XPS Transfer Value Index Tracker monitors how market developments impact the transfer value of a typical defined benefit (DB) pension scheme member.

Transfer activity also rose in March, reaching an annualised rate of 18 members per 1,000 transferring out of their DB pension to another scheme, according to the company’s Transfer Activity Index.

Activity remained muted overall, which XPS has linked to the impact of high gilt yields on transfer values.

“A long-term resolution in the Middle East continues to remain uncertain, and the full impact on pension scheme members is yet to be realised,” commented XPS Group, senior consultant, Helen Cavanagh.

“It is crucial that members fully understand their retirement options and any ongoing risks they continue to face.

"Trustees should be ensuring that members who are considering transferring away from guaranteed benefits have access to high-quality financial advice so that they fully understand the potential impact that shocks in global markets can have on their pension pots,” she continued.

The ongoing instability in the Middle East is also being felt elsewhere, with the PPF 7800 Index reporting a fall in DB funding surpluses.

Meanwhile, XPS Group’s latest Scam Flag Index has found that 92 per cent of transfers reviewed in March showed at least one potential scam warning.

After easing earlier in the year, scam flags have risen again, with more cases involving unclear or complex charging structures.

The firm has warned that increasingly sophisticated AI‑driven scams mean that trustees need strong scam-protection processes in place.

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