Defined benefit (DB) pension transfer redress remains unlikely to be payable in most cases in Q2 2026, with global market volatility having only a limited impact on calculations, the latest tracker from Broadstone has revealed.

The consultancy’s quarterly redress tracker showed the central estimate of compensation for a typical case remained broadly unchanged at around minus £40,000, indicating that, under the modelled assumptions, the example consumer was still expected to be better off as a result of transferring.

This marked a continuation of the trend seen at the start of the year, when redress had already fallen to historically low levels, following what Broadstone previously described as a year of “radical decline” in 2025.

Despite recent geopolitical tensions and market volatility, including disruptions linked to the conflict in Iran and rising inflation expectations, Broadstone found that the impact on redress calculations has so far been minimal.

While asset values have deteriorated, which would typically increase the likelihood of compensation being payable, this has been largely offset by rising short- to medium-term bond yields, which reduced the present value of the DB benefits that were given up.

The latest data also highlighted the scale of the shift in recent years.

The last time the tracker indicated that compensation would be payable was in Q4 2024, when the central estimate stood at £2,000.

This compares to £57,000 in Q2 2023, underlining the sharp and sustained downward trend in redress levels.

However, Broadstone stressed that the central estimate masked significant variation between individual cases.

Indeed, it noted that outcomes remained highly dependent on factors such as the critical yield at the point of transfer, the timing of the transfer, and the investment returns achieved post-transfer.

Meanwhile, transfers completed between 2016 and 2018 were generally more likely to show gains, whereas more recent transfers and significantly older cases were more likely to result in losses.

In addition, individuals who had experienced weaker investment performance, whether due to lower-risk strategies such as holding cash or poor investment decisions, were more likely to be eligible for redress.

Broadstone senior consultant and actuary, Simon Robinson, stated that although markets had experienced heightened volatility in recent weeks, the impact on redress calculations has been limited.

He explained that weaker asset performance would normally increase the likelihood of redress being payable, but this had largely been offset by rising bond yields.

Robinson also emphasised that, despite the overall downward trend in redress calculations, there remained a cohort of consumers for whom compensation would be due, meaning firms should continue to assess cases carefully rather than assuming that no redress was payable.

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