Pension scheme trustees have been urged to ensure they understand the drivers of future mortality, after analysis from LCP identified "significant disruption" to mortality trends in the wake of the pandemic and the ongoing pressures on the healthcare system.

LCP's report, Unlocking mortality trends: a key to better outcomes, analysed the behaviour of the latest Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) model, which is commonly used by defined benefit (DB) trustees and sponsors in the UK.

This found that any plausible mortality outcome in 2024 leads to an inevitable fall in life expectancy, unless structural change is made to the CMI model or even less weight is put on post-pandemic mortality data.

The report showed that, despite the headline pressures on the NHS, mortality rates over the first few months of 2024 are in line with the best years on record.

In addition to this, LCP suggested that if obesity drugs meet their early promise and gain widespread take-up, they could significantly improve the outlook for future longevity.

However, LCP said it also anticipates an uptick in cancer deaths in the coming years due to ongoing delays in diagnosis and treatment.

More broadly, LCP acknowledged that actuarial views on life expectancy have also swung "significantly" over the years, noting that, over the past two decades, typical assumptions for life expectancy at 65 first rose by 20 per cent, before falling by 13 per cent, with the current trajectory left "especially uncertain".

And, given the impact of the pandemic and ongoing pressures on the NHS, LCP argued that the CMI's current approach looks "increasingly problematic", suggesting that modifications could be introduced in next year’s model.

"Relying solely on traditional actuarial methods to predict future mortality no longer works,"
LCP partner and head of life analytics, Chris Tavener, said.

"This challenge is exemplified by the CMI’s mortality projections model, which is creaking, and we expect to see modifications next year.”

Adding to this, LCP partner and head of longevity and demographic insights, Stuart McDonald, said: “Our new report analyses recent trends in causes of mortality, drawing on input from our multi-disciplinary team of actuaries, epidemiologists, clinicians and other health experts.

“Unlocking mortality trends enables more informed decisions, which is the key to better outcomes for members, trustees and sponsors of DB pension schemes.”

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