The projected life expectancy for a typical UK pensioner has fallen by around nine months for men and seven months for women compared to pre-pandemic models, equating to a 2 per cent reduction in liabilities for a typical pension scheme, analysis from Aon has revealed.

Its analysis of UK mortality trends, using data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI), showed that although mortality rates in 2024 have returned to levels similar to 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic, the UK remains "significantly" behind expectations.

According to the figures, there were around 36,500 more deaths registered in 2024 than there were in 2019, but the standardised rates were similar, which meant mortality rates were roughly back in line with pre-pandemic rates.

However, for a typical UK pensioner aged 65 in 2025, using the core calibration of each model and a typical long-term rate of improvement, the projected life expectancy has fallen since the pre-pandemic model to 86 years and 6 months for a male and 89 years for a female.

CMI publishes mortality projection models each year, with the last pre-pandemic model was based on population-level mortality data up to the end of 2019 (CMI_2019).

The most recent full model uses data up to the end of 2023 (CMI_2023), although CMI has recently proposed a new model, which would allow for data up to the end of 2024.

Its proposal increases life expectancy slightly for males aged 65 compared to the most recent full model, reflecting that mortality in 2024 was lighter than the CMI_2023 projection.

The reduction in life expectancy equates to a decrease in liabilities of around 2 per cent for a typical pension scheme, based solely on adopting the latest version of the model and without adjusting to any of the parameters within it (for example, the long-term rate of improvement).

ONS also publishes regular projections of life expectancy.

Its 2018-based (pre-pandemic) projections gave a life expectancy of 85 years, 7 months for a man aged 65 in 2025 and 87 years, 10 months for a woman.

In their 2022-based projections, this fell to 85 years and 1 month for men but remained unchanged for women.

However, Aon said that the pandemic also had knock-on effects on the wider health of the population, pointing out that, while COVID-19 continues to contribute directly to mortality, with almost 10,000 deaths involving COVID recorded in 2024, the largest effects are likely to be more indirect, relating to the longer-term knock-on impacts on healthcare.

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