Whilst defined benefit (DB) transfer values have fallen since the start of the year, there are growing signs of stability, with XPS Group's latest Transfer Value Index showing that month-end values have fluctuated within a £5,000 range over the past six months.

Although the index recorded a “modest” increase in DB transfer values in September, XPS pointed out that DB transfer values remained almost 3 per cent lower than at the end of June 2025, and around 6 per cent lower than the levels seen at the start of the year.

But the group suggested that there signs of greater stability in the latest quarter, revealing that month-end values had fluctuated within a £5,000 range over the past six months.

"Whilst transfer values have fallen over the course of 2025, we have also seen signs of greater stability over Q3 which is a promising sign, suggesting a more predictable environment for pension decision-making," XPS Group senior consultant, Helen Cavanagh, said.

"This is crucial for members approaching retirement as they will be able to make more informed decisions about the options that may be most suitable for them."

Cavanagh pointed out that the increased stability may also be having an impact on transfer volumes, which have generally increased in 2025, despite the small dip in recent months.

Indeed, XPS found that DB transfer activity experienced a slight increase in September, with its Transfer Activity Index increasing to an annualised rate of 18 members per 1,000 members transferring their benefits to alternative arrangements.

And despite the signs of stability in the value market, XPS found that there has been increased volatility in the index in recent months in terms of transfer activity, following a "steady start" to the year.

In July, the annualised rate of members transferring their benefits to alternative arrangements was 22 per 1,000 members, but it decreased to 15 per 1,000 members in August.

Meanwhile, XPS Group's Scam Flag Index saw a marginal fall from August to September, as 92 per cent of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service in September 2025 raised at least one scam warning flag, down from 93 per cent in August.

The group explained that this is the first quarter since the summer of 2023 where the index has remained above 90 per cent.

Cavanagh said that it is “clear that the issue of pension scams is not going away”, with the majority of transfers continuing to raise at least one scam warning flag.

However, she noted that in many cases, this is the overseas investments flag, which some may view as a lower risk flag.

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