The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its updated mortality projections model, with higher life expectancies for both men and women in most age cohorts.

The model is used by many defined benefit (DB) pension schemes and insurers when setting assumptions around mortality rates.

It showed that life expectancy for 65 year olds was around 0.6 per cent higher than last year’s model, while those aged 25 saw a 0.2 per cent increase and 85 year olds’ life expectancy projections rose by 0.25 per cent.

According to WTW, the updated model will result in scheme liabilities increasing by around 0.5 per cent for those adopting it in place of the previous model.

“Mortality projection model updates have now increased life expectancy for two consecutive years,” noted WTW director and senior mortality consultant, Stephen Caine.

“This follows a prolonged slowdown in population mortality improvements from 2011 and the deteriorations associated with the Covid 19 pandemic.

“The overall impact on a scheme will depend on the age profile of its membership, but scheme liabilities will generally increase by around 0.5 per cent for schemes adopting the model in place of CMI_2024.”

Caine added that CMI_2025 incorporated 2025 data for England and Wales, when mortality rates were the lowest on record overall.

“However, the detail reveals a varied picture: mortality for male adults aged between 20-59 barely improved in 2025 and is still higher than before the pandemic.

“Further, life expectancy under the CMI_2025 model is also still some way behind CMI model predictions made in the early 2010s before the slowdown in UK longevity improvements took hold.

“Updating mortality assumptions will typically bring about a small increase in liability values for schemes with an actuarial valuation this year compared with the CMI_2022 which is likely to have been used for the previous cycle of triennial valuations.”

Also commenting on the new CMI model, LCP partner, Ben Rees, said: “CMI_2025 builds on the excellent work carried out by the CMI when redesigning CMI_2024.

“This year’s ‘business-as-usual’ update brings 2025 experience data, the lightest on record, into the model.

“The update leads to life expectancies at age 65 which are around 0.6 per cent higher than last year’s model.

“We look forward to the CMI’s review of projection methods ahead of the release of CMI_2026 next year.”

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